By Nick Polson and James Scott

Availability Heuristic: there are a lot of movies about evil AI, but no examples of robot takeovers. There is far more examples of existing bias creeping into automated decisions.

Chapter 1 - Refugee, Wald's airplane problem and conditional probability.

Comparing user data: collection of user data

Chapter 2 - Candlestick maker - this explains how Henrietta Leavitt observed how the period of a pulsating star related to the brightness (on a logarithmic scale). This provided a way to measure how far away a light is (approximately).

Chapter 3 - Reverend & Submarine, self driving cars. Introduces Bayes rule:

Probability ( Hypotheses ) x Probability ( Data given Hypotheses ) Probability ( Hypotheses given Data ) = -------------------------------------------------------------------- Probability ( Data )

The book uses a waterfall diagram can help explain the low probability of cancer given a positive test for a 40 year old.

Chapter 4 - Amazing Grace (Hopper) - Natural Language Processing

Chapter 5 - Genius at the Mint - starts with a story of Newton taking a job at the Royal Mint, and how he did so poorly. De Moivre's equation:

Variability of a Single Variability of an Average = ---------------------------- Square root of sample size

Chapter 6 - Lady with the Lamp - Florence Nightingale invented the coxcomb for data viz.